With the crash of a Air France Flight 447 somewhere off the coasts of Brazil and the initial reports indicating that the plane had encountered a combination of lightning, wind and hail from thunderstorms has already lead to speculation that weather or a combination of weather and other factors may have brought down the flight.
In fact, A LiveScience article entitled Lightening and Other Weather Threats to Airplanes quickly appeared after the plane’s disappearance and pointed at that lightening striking a commercial aircraft is a relatively rare occurrence while updrafts and downdrafts from thunderstorms and turbulence in general pose somewhat larger but still minimal risks. However, a far more dangerous weather related threat, especially to small private planes, comes from ice on the aircraft’s wings. In fact, the article points that 819 people have died in accidents from 1982 to 2000 as a result of in-flight icing on the wings and many of these accidents involved small planes.
However, another LiveScience article entitled Flying is Safer Than Ever that also quickly appeared after the incident points out that:
The lifetime odds of dying of heart disease are 1-in-5 (based on 2001 statistics), while those of dying in an auto accident are 1-in-100. The odds of dying in an air travel accident are 1-in-20,000.
Moreover, one can further assume that the odds of having a fatal accident on a road during bad weather, especially when roads are slick with ice, is still much greater than having an accident in an aircraft – even a small aircraft.
Nevertheless, it is important to remember that if you are a recreational pilot, you can always choose a route that will largely avoid bad weather or simply make the choice NOT to fly in extreme weather conditions – a choice that many drivers on the road are not so lucky to have.
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